The Drubbing

Every year around this time, thousands of frantic football fans prepare for their NFL Fantasy Football draft.  This is where teams are made, bragging rights born, and trash talking starts.  The draft can make or break your team.  Not only do you need to come away with 3 solid players in the first three rounds, but you also need to be prepared to add depth in the later rounds so you can prepare for the unexpected.  Every fantasy football team is one Bernard Pollard hit away from scrambling for the waiver wire.

After having 2 drafts completed, and only 1 keeper team remaining, i feel that i can give away a few hints, trade secrets and general strategy.  My Vegas Cheetahs franchise is fully stacked after having smartly drafted DeAngelo Williams (3rd), Chris Johnson (4th), & Steve Slaton (10th) with some timely mid-to-late round picks last year, so i feel it’s safe for me to give some advice this year.

When glancing over the rankings, projections and tiers this year one thing stands out to me that is A MUST in your draft.  No matter where you are in your draft order, you NEED to come away with 1 full time starting RB or a top flight WR.  This is a must in your first 2 rounds.  The NFL is changing a lot, with more and more teams going to 2 back systems, and teams throwing the ball now more than ever in a spread offense.  Depending on if your league is a PPR (point per receptions) league, i could even see someone with picks 6th or later taking 2 top WRs in the top 2 rounds.

A few years ago every team used to draft RB/RB in the 1st two rounds with the occasional Manning/Culpepper sprinked in there.  Those days are long gone.  Teams are throwing the ball now more than ever and the list of Tier 1 & 2 WRs are very short.  There are only a handful of top reliable WRs in the NFL who are sure to get touches every game.  After say a Roddy White, or Wes Welker the difference between the 15th best WR and the 50th best WR is not that great.  So i am telling you this.  If you are in the position to snag an Andre Johnson, a Reggie Wayne, or a Marques Colston in the 1st two rounds….do it.  Do it quickly, do it with a smile.  Enjoy all your friends yelling “reach” or “stretch” because while they are drafting Braylon “hands” Edwards in the 4th or 5th round trying to fill out their starting lineup after quickly realizing there are no good WRs out there , you can draft Ray Rice, Dallas Clark, or Tony Romo.

The last few years i have experimented with the WR/WR strategy in the drafts where i am in the bottom half of the draft order.  So far, i have had great success.  There is always the hot shot RB straight out of college, or off the streets that has a monster year.  RBs outside of the top 4 or 5 are a dime a dozen.  Insert another fast player onto a team with a good O-line and they will gain 1,000yds and 4-5 TDs.  So if you do use the WR/WR strategy, take some time to check out the depth charts of teams, read some scouting reports and take a gamble on a 2nd or even 3rd string RB in the 7th – 10th round.  This year I’d gamble on Glen Coffee, Laurency Maroney (remember him?!), Jarious Norwood (more on him in a second) and Donald Brown.

But Ryan, i was blessed to get a top 5 pick, what about me?  Well my friend, you are able to get a top starting RB and then on the way back get a good WR or a great QB.  Think about a TJ Whoseyourmama or a Wes Welker or a Chad Ochocinco and follow that with Aaron Rodgers or Philip Rivers with your 3rd pick.  This gives you studs at RB, QB and a good WR.  All you can ask is for 3 really good players in the 1st three rounds.  After that, its about luck and making sure you have depth backing up your key positions.

Another thing you should be weary of is the curse of 370.  If you do not know about this curse, let me summarize:

The stat was “discovered” by Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz in 2004.  Running backs who rush for more than 370 carries in a season will either have a significant decline or get hurt the following season. Only one running back, Eric Dickerson, has been able to beat the curse.  After Jamal Anderson powered the Falcons to the Super Bowl with 410 carries in 1998, he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in 1999 and was never the same. Gerald Riggs ran for 1,719 yards on 397 carries in 1985. He followed up that season with 1,327 yards on 343 carries but although he played five more seasons, he never eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark again. Some of the latest players to succumb the curse include Seattle’s Shaun Alexander, Kansas City’s Larry Johnson, Tennessee’s Eddie George and Miami’s Ricky Williams.

In case you did not know, Michael Turner had 376 carries last year and Adrian Peterson had 363 carries.  What does this mean for you top 5 position drafters?  Well, it doesn’t mean you should NOT take either of those players, you would be stupid to pass them up.  But what it does mean is that Chester Taylor and Jarious Norwood become a lot more valuable to you.  So, instead of waiting too long, maybe you take Taylor/Norwood in the 6th or 7th round instead of the 9th or 10th.

Whelp, i am running up on 1,000 words so thats all the insight from me for now.  I hope i helped some of you last minute draft scramblers, and remember – go into the draft with a strategy for your first 3 rounds and stick to it.  Map out a group of players you need to get for each pick, stick to them and don’t get rattled if one of them gets picked right in front of you.