The Drubbing

So what if my name makes me sound like a German dictator?

With the major theme of most of my posts being baseball so far, I thought I might switch it up a bit and talk about baseball.

(Since my Giants embarrassed themselves this past week, I am counting down the days to pitchers and catchers). I found myself wondering if there might have been some promising rookie pitchers out there I might have missed. So, I decided to look at the 119 pitchers who made their major league debuts last year. Now I, not being a major league scout, do not possess the ability to break down film, so I will do what I always do, and take a look at a reasonably good predictor of future success, K/9IP.

To limit the math, I looked only at those pitchers who pitched at least 20 innings in their last year, and here are the ten rookies who averaged at least 9 strikeouts for every 9 innings pitched (that’s right, its chart time again!):

Your first reaction was probably the same as mine. With the possible exception of Max Scherzer, who the hell are these guys? Well, let’s take a look at them one at a time.

David Robertson-First, I swear I didn’t pick this list just so I could say a Yankee led in something. Honest, I didn’t. Robertson is 23 years old, right-handed, came up in June, and pitched 25 games out of the pen. His 5.34 ERA was horrific, mostly due to a 4.5BB/9IP, which in turn saw him pitching to what amounts to 4.23 batters per inning (for perspective, last year’s Cy Young winners, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee faced 4.08 and 3.99 batters per inning). Not exactly the numbers of a reliever you don’t worry about. All that not withstanding, most 23 year olds have control problems as they learn how to pitch. If you have the stuff to strike guys out at that rate, you have great potential.

Alex Hinshaw-25 years old, left-handed, debuted in May for the Giants, pitched in 48 games in mostly a lefty specialist role. This guy has serious control issues with a 6.5BB/9IP (again, for perspective, Lincecum issued 3.33BB/9IP and Lee 1.37BB/9IP). As a result, he was pitching to the equivalent of 4.5 batters an inning. Making his major league debut at 25 (for a very bad team), Hinshaw is getting up there in years. In MLB, late bloomers are the exception rather than the rule. If Dave Righetti can teach him some control, he could have success because he clearly has a good arm. However, he probably would be firmly in the minors for any team that wasn’t terrible.

Maz Scherzer-The only one most of us have ever heard of, but first the particulars. 23 yrs old, right-handed, debuted in April for Arizona, started 7 games, and appeared in 9 others out of the bullpen. He debuted to great fanfare and didn’t disappoint. He showed some good control for a rookie walking only 3.3BB/9IP and facing roughly 4.2 batters an inning. He has tremendous stuff and the ability to make bats miss. Arizona will have to be careful with Max, but they project him as their fourth starter this year.

Garret Mock-25 yrs old, right-handed, debuted in June for the Nationals, started 3 games and appeared in 23 others. Shockingly, yet another young pitcher with control problems. Mock issued 5BB/9IP and faced roughly 4.39 batters an inning. Again, he is 25, and is reaching the later part of his career where that sort of thing usually gets fixed. If not for the terrible team he pitched for Mock would have been where he belonged; in the minors.

Shairon Martis-21 years old, debuted in September for the Nationals, right-handed, started 4 games and appeared out of the pen in another. The guy with the fewest innings pitched of any on the list, he is still a kid that is developing. He issued 5.21BB/9IP and faced 4.44 batters an inning. He is very susceptible to the longball (5 homeruns in just 20.7 innings), and his ERA of 5.66 reflected all of those things. Still, this guy is a kid, and he did show an affinity for striking major league hitters out. This should serve as a note to the Nationals that Randy St. Claire should probably go as pitching coach before these young guys are lost forever. Randy St. Claire sounds like a WWE wrestler, not a pitching coach.

Wesley Wright (full name Dequam LeWesley Wright)-23 yrs old, debuted on opening day for the Astros, left-handed, appeared in 71 games out of the pen. He issued 5.5BB/9IP and faced 4.48 batters an inning. He too had a homerun problem, giving up 8 in those 55.7 innings. Additionally, he hit four batters and threw two more wild pitches. Now, Rick Vaughn pre glasses he isn’t, but this is another guy that probably wouldn’t be in the majors on a team seriously thinking about competing.

Chris Perez-22 yrs old, debuted in May for the Cardinals, right-handed, and appeared in 41 games out of the pen. He issued 4.7BB/9IP and faced 4.24 batters an inning. Chris pitched pretty well in 2008. His ERA+ (ERA adjusted for park and league) was 123, meaning his ERA was 23% better than the league average. He even pitched in as a closer when Tony Larussa needed him, racking up 7 saves in 11 opportunities. With the proper nurturing and tutelage, Perez might be a very good reliever out of the pen. If they can get his walks down he could be a cheap and serviceable setup man.

Ramon Troncoso-25 yrs old, debuted in April for the Dodgers, right-handed, and appeared in 32 games out of the pen. Troncoso was another very pretty good pitcher, walking only 2.84 BB/9IP and facing 4.21 batters an inning. Now, Troncoso appears to exhibit fairly reasonable control, and a good ability to strikeout major league hitters. Like Perez, he pitched pretty well in 2008 and shows promise as a 7th or 8th inning guy. However, his greatest threat will be Joe Torre and his willingness to destroy young pitchers out of the pen. Troncoso’s agent should call Lloyd’s of London and demand Scott Proctor insurance immediately.

Gio Gonzalez-22 yrs old, debuted in August for the A’s, left-handed, started 7 games and appeared out of the pen in 3 others. He faced 4.79 batters an inning, and issued a staggering 6.61 BB/9IP, which led to his utterly miserable ERA of 7.68. He was incredibly susceptible to the homerun, allowing 9 in those 34 innings pitched, hitting another 3 batters and throwing a wild pitch. So what do we make of this guy? I think we have to say that he needs to go immediately to the minors, without passing go, and without collecting $200 dollars. He will always get a look from teams because he is left-handed and misses bats, but if he continues to walk guys at that rate, he will never have a spot in the major leagues. The problem for the A’s is that he is currently slotted in as the Athletics fourth starter. If he doesn’t improve, the A’s are going to be in deep trouble, even in the weak AL West.