The Drubbing

There has been much talk about the Hall of Fame lately, and I wanted to take the time to focus on one player who has been talked about a lot in terms of his candidacy: Jack Morris. From what I can tell, the basic arguments about Jack Morris are that he was a winner, and he was a good postseason pitcher ( the masterful Game 7 in 1991 being the most obvious argument).

First, I am not sure that I buy the argument for any pitcher that he was just a “winner”. Its vague and difficult to actually examine, but for the purposes here, lets examine what that means.  His career adjusted ERA+ (which levels out era for park factors, leagues, etc.) is 105. That means his park adjusted ERA was 5% better than the league average over the course of his career. To me, that is not really the pedigree of a Hall of Famer. His supporters are right, he did win 254 games, but Jamie Moyer has 246 and counting, and I haven’t really heard anyone that has begun beating the drum for Jamie Moyer. Furthermore, if wins alone are the measure, then Jack has to wait behind Tommy John and Bert Blyleven before he gets his entry pass.

So, now we have to take a look at his postseason numbers. Here they are: (%won is percent of the games started that the pitcher received a win for)

%Won       K/9IP    BB/9IP    H/9IP      ERA+

Morris .481           5.83           3.27          8.39        105

That means he let roughly 11 hitters on base every 9 innings in the postseason. I don’t really have a context to put that in for the postseason, but if that were a regular season number, he is Al Leiter.

Many of the other arguments focus on the fact that Morris was an old school pitcher who took the ball every fifth day and (he started 30 or more games 11 times in his 18 year career) pitched an average of 212 innings a year over 18 years (with a high of 293 in 1983!). Those are all true. And without any reservation, that game 7 in 1991 was legendary. But I still don’t think he makes it as a Hall of Famer. As a comparison, I looked up the stats of another tough guy from Morris’ time in the league that also has somewhat of a reputation as a good postseason pitcher whom no one would want to face. Here are the numbers, first for the regular season, then the postseason:

%Won      K/9IP     BB/9IP    H/9IP    ERA+

Morris .481           5.83       3.27          8.39          105
Player A .482           5.96       3.53          8.55          100

Here are their postseason numbers:

%Won       K/9IP     BB/9IP    H/9IP     WHIP

Morris .538           6.25          3.10          8.11          1.24
Player A .555           4.93          3.24          6.69          1.10

Morris probably gets the slight nod here, but I think anyone would say it is close. The postseason numbers too, are a mixed bag. He has the edge in strikeouts and walks, but gave up far more hits, won slightly less, and had a higher WHIP. However, my point is not simply to say that this other guy isn’t a Hall of Famer, so Morris shouldn’t be either. My point is to try and illustrate that reputation isn’t always correct. The mind has a funny way of remembering things.

Player A is Dave Stewart. Because of the glare over his mitt, his fiery attitude, and the constant talk of his lethal forkball, I, like many of you, have memories of him being a solid postseason pitcher (His complete game, 5 hit, one walk shutout of San Francisco in Game 1 of the 1989 World Series comes to mind). But in the end, the numbers themselves do not indicate an overall dominance at all. In fact, his regular season ERA+ indicates his adjusted ERA was exactly the same as the average adjusted ERA of other pitchers during his career.

In summary, our memories aren’t perfect, and things like one stellar game, a menacing glare, or one “nasty” pitch can often cloud our judgment. That is why we look at the numbers to guide us, and the numbers simply don’t support Jack Morris being admitted to the Hall of Fame.